{ "schema_version": "2.0", "generated_at": "2026-05-31T19:54:34Z", "based_on": { "publication_date": "2026-05-27", "latest_month": "2026-04" }, "statsmodels_available": false, "executive_summary": { "headline": "Ontario's regulated iGaming market handled $9.31B in cash wagers and generated $405M in NAGGR in April 2026, with 1,265K active player accounts.", "lede": "In April 2026, Ontario operators handled $9.31B in cash wagers (-3.0% MoM, +19.5% YoY) and produced $405M in NAGGR (+5.0% MoM, +29.4% YoY). Active player accounts reached 1,265K (+16.0% YoY) at an average revenue per active account of $321. Trailing-12-month wagers run-rate sits at $104.85B, with NAGGR at $4.36B. That equates to roughly 9.9% of Ontario's adult (15+) population holding an active account that month \u2014 an upper-bound estimate, since one person can hold accounts with multiple operators.", "key_takeaways": [ { "icon": "trend-up", "title": "Wagers +19.5% YoY", "body": "Cash wagers of $9.31B are +19.5% versus April 2025, with a trailing-12mo average of $8.74B." }, { "icon": "trend-up", "title": "NAGGR +29.4% YoY", "body": "Operators booked $405M in NAGGR, at an implied blended hold of 4.3% across all products." }, { "icon": "users", "title": "1,265K active accounts", "body": "Active player accounts are +16.0% YoY with ARPPA at $321." }, { "icon": "pie", "title": "Casino 87% of wagers", "body": "Casino captured 87% of cash wagers and 77% of NAGGR \u2014 its share is rising versus two years ago." }, { "icon": "calendar", "title": "FY26 closes near record", "body": "April 2026 closed FY26 with cash-wager run-rate near the all-time peak of $9.59B (2026-03)." }, { "icon": "forecast", "title": "Next 3 months", "body": "Ensemble forecast projects cash wagers of $9.94B, $9.86B, $10.00B for the coming three months (median of linear-trend, exponential-smoothing, and seasonal-naive methods)." } ] }, "kpi_summary": { "cash_wagers": { "latest": 9315.0, "unit": "$M", "mom_pct": -0.03, "yoy_pct": 0.1948, "qoq_pct": -0.026, "cagr_since_launch_pct": 0.7141, "doubling_months_at_current_cagr": 15.4, "vs_24mo_avg_pct": 0.1815, "all_time_high": { "value": 9591.0, "month": "2026-03" }, "narrative": "Cash wagers at $9.31B (+19.5% YoY) sits above the 24-month average; since launch the metric has compounded at 71.4% annualised, with an all-time high of $9.59B in 2026-03." }, "naggr": { "latest": 405.4, "unit": "$M", "mom_pct": 0.05, "yoy_pct": 0.294, "qoq_pct": -0.0808, "cagr_since_launch_pct": 0.7432, "doubling_months_at_current_cagr": 15.0, "vs_24mo_avg_pct": 0.2737, "all_time_high": { "value": 425.6, "month": "2025-12" }, "narrative": "NAGGR at $405M (+29.4% YoY) sits above the 24-month average; since launch the metric has compounded at 74.3% annualised, with an all-time high of $426M in 2025-12." }, "active_players": { "latest": 1265.0, "unit": "K", "mom_pct": 0.02, "yoy_pct": 0.1595, "qoq_pct": -0.0238, "cagr_since_launch_pct": 0.4618, "doubling_months_at_current_cagr": 21.9, "vs_24mo_avg_pct": 0.1839, "all_time_high": { "value": 1327.0, "month": "2026-01" }, "narrative": "Active player accounts at 1,265K (+16.0% YoY) sits above the 24-month average; since launch the metric has compounded at 46.2% annualised, with an all-time high of 1,327K in 2026-01." }, "arppa": { "latest": 321.0, "unit": "$", "mom_pct": 0.03, "yoy_pct": 0.1185, "qoq_pct": -0.0569, "cagr_since_launch_pct": 0.1939, "doubling_months_at_current_cagr": 46.9, "vs_24mo_avg_pct": 0.0764, "all_time_high": { "value": 333.0, "month": "2025-12" }, "narrative": "ARPPA at $321 (+11.8% YoY) sits above the 24-month average; since launch the metric has compounded at 19.4% annualised, with an all-time high of $333 in 2025-12." } }, "product_summary": { "casino": { "wagers_latest_m": 8142.0, "wagers_share": 0.87, "wagers_share_24mo_ago": 0.83, "wagers_share_trend": "rising", "naggr_latest_m": 314.1, "naggr_share": 0.77, "naggr_share_24mo_ago": 0.72, "naggr_share_trend": "rising", "naggr_share_yoy_pp": 0.0, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.2366, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.2937, "hold_pct": 0.0386 }, "betting": { "wagers_latest_m": 1045.0, "wagers_share": 0.11, "wagers_share_24mo_ago": 0.15, "wagers_share_trend": "falling", "naggr_latest_m": 86.0, "naggr_share": 0.21, "naggr_share_24mo_ago": 0.26, "naggr_share_trend": "falling", "naggr_share_yoy_pp": 0.0, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.0206, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.3313, "hold_pct": 0.0823 }, "poker": { "wagers_latest_m": 128.0, "wagers_share": 0.01, "wagers_share_24mo_ago": 0.02, "wagers_share_trend": "stable", "naggr_latest_m": 5.3, "naggr_share": 0.01, "naggr_share_24mo_ago": 0.02, "naggr_share_trend": "stable", "naggr_share_yoy_pp": -1.0, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.1111, "yoy_naggr_pct": -0.1017, "hold_pct": 0.0414 } }, "trends": { "cash_wagers": { "growth_pattern": "Continuing expansion through the most recent six months", "trailing_12mo_avg_m": 8737.17, "trailing_12mo_growth_pct": 0.2427, "seasonality_note": "Pronounced seasonality: peak in March, trough in June (peak-to-trough spread 39%). Winter months consistently exceed summer." }, "naggr": { "growth_pattern": "Continuing expansion through the most recent six months", "trailing_12mo_avg_m": 363.15, "trailing_12mo_growth_pct": 0.3282, "seasonality_note": "Pronounced seasonality: peak in January, trough in June (peak-to-trough spread 40%). Winter months consistently exceed summer." }, "active_players": { "growth_pattern": "Continuing expansion through the most recent six months", "trailing_12mo_avg_m": 1185.17, "trailing_12mo_growth_pct": 0.2453, "seasonality_note": "Pronounced seasonality: peak in February, trough in July (peak-to-trough spread 43%). Winter months consistently exceed summer." }, "arppa": { "growth_pattern": "Continuing expansion through the most recent six months", "trailing_12mo_avg_m": 307.25, "trailing_12mo_growth_pct": 0.0625, "seasonality_note": "Pronounced seasonality: peak in August, trough in February (peak-to-trough spread 24%). Winter months consistently exceed summer." } }, "forecasts": { "method_notes": "Forecasts are the median of three independently-computed methods: (1) linear-trend OLS on the last 12 months, (2) manual exponential smoothing with damped trend (\u03b1=0.3, \u03b2=0.1), and (3) seasonal-naive (y[t-12] \u00d7 trailing-12-month growth). The low/high band is the min/max across the three methods \u2014 an honest uncertainty envelope, not a statistical confidence interval.", "horizon_months": 3, "cash_wagers": { "next_3_months": [ { "point": 9939.58, "low": 9719.23, "high": 10023.32, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-05" }, { "point": 9861.49, "low": 9020.49, "high": 10124.56, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-06" }, { "point": 10003.75, "low": 9399.51, "high": 10309.55, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-07" } ], "confidence_note": "The low/high band reflects disagreement between the three methods rather than a probabilistic interval \u2014 widening bands in summer months typically reflect seasonal-naive pulling down while linear-trend keeps climbing." }, "naggr": { "next_3_months": [ { "point": 416.46, "low": 409.79, "high": 448.93, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-05" }, { "point": 416.88, "low": 407.49, "high": 424.67, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-06" }, { "point": 423.96, "low": 413.2, "high": 432.87, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-07" } ], "confidence_note": "The low/high band reflects disagreement between the three methods rather than a probabilistic interval \u2014 widening bands in summer months typically reflect seasonal-naive pulling down while linear-trend keeps climbing." }, "active_players": { "next_3_months": [ { "point": 1330.46, "low": 1329.93, "high": 1380.08, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-05" }, { "point": 1350.3, "low": 1261.44, "high": 1410.06, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-06" }, { "point": 1370.13, "low": 1180.5, "high": 1440.05, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-07" } ], "confidence_note": "The low/high band reflects disagreement between the three methods rather than a probabilistic interval \u2014 widening bands in summer months typically reflect seasonal-naive pulling down while linear-trend keeps climbing." }, "arppa": { "next_3_months": [ { "point": 309.33, "low": 301.0, "high": 335.76, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-05" }, { "point": 310.31, "low": 300.04, "high": 321.95, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-06" }, { "point": 311.3, "low": 299.08, "high": 348.51, "methods_used": [ "linear-trend", "exp-smoothing", "seasonal-naive" ], "year_month": "2026-07" } ], "confidence_note": "The low/high band reflects disagreement between the three methods rather than a probabilistic interval \u2014 widening bands in summer months typically reflect seasonal-naive pulling down while linear-trend keeps climbing." } }, "anomalies": [ { "year_month": "2022-09", "metric": "active_players_k", "type": "spike", "magnitude_pct": 0.44, "z_score": 5.03, "interpretation": "active players k jumped 44% MoM" }, { "year_month": "2022-05", "metric": "cash_wagers_m", "type": "spike", "magnitude_pct": 0.36, "z_score": 4.11, "interpretation": "cash wagers jumped 36% MoM" } ], "narrative_sections": { "market_maturation": { "thesis": "Ontario's iGaming market has graduated from launch ramp to mature plateau.", "bullets": [ "**8.6\u00d7 growth** in cash wagers since launch \u2014 $1.08B (Apr 2022) \u2192 $9.31B (April 2026)", "**71.4% CAGR** in handle since launch, **74.3%** in NAGGR", "Steep launch ramp through **Oct 2023**, then settled into a mature plateau", "**Trailing-12-mo avg $8.74B** \u2014 winter highs alternate with summer softness", "YoY decelerated to **+19.5%** on wagers \u2014 past the land-grab phase" ], "closing": null, "prose": "Ontario's regulated iGaming market opened in April 2022 with $1.08B in cash wagers and $44M in NAGGR across 277K active accounts. Four fiscal years later, April 2026 closed at $9.31B in wagers \u2014 roughly 8.6\u00d7 the launch month \u2014 with NAGGR at $405M and player accounts at 1,265K. The compound monthly growth implied a 71.4% annualised expansion in handle since launch and 74.3% in NAGGR. The growth curve, however, is no longer linear: after a steep launch ramp through October 2023, the market has settled into a mature plateau in which seasonal highs in winter alternate with summer softness, and the trailing-12-month average sits at $8.74B. Year-over-year comparisons remain positive but have decelerated into the high single digits, consistent with an established market past its land-grab phase." }, "product_mix_shift": { "thesis": "Casino dominates handle; Betting punches above its weight on revenue.", "bullets": [ "**Casino 87% of wagers** + **77% of NAGGR** in April 2026", "Casino wagers-share **rising vs 2 years ago** (was 83%) \u2014 live-dealer + slot growth", "**Betting 11% of wagers** but **21% of NAGGR** \u2014 structurally higher hold", "Hold rates: **Casino 3.9%** vs **Betting 8.2%** vs **Poker 4.1%**", "P2P Poker steady at **1% / 1%** \u2014 small but loyal niche" ], "closing": "Structural lesson for other Canadian provinces: a regulated, competitive casino vertical will dominate headline handle but yield a smaller share of taxable revenue than sports.", "prose": "Casino remains overwhelmingly dominant in Ontario, capturing 87% of cash wagers and 77% of NAGGR in April 2026. Two years ago that wagers share was 83% \u2014 a rising trajectory that reflects the relentless growth of live-dealer and slot product. Betting (primarily sports) handles 11% of wagers but contributes a larger 21% share of NAGGR, reflecting the structurally higher hold of fixed-odds sports versus the high-velocity / low-margin casino vertical (casino hold 3.9%, betting hold 8.2%). P2P Poker continues to occupy a small but loyal niche at 1% of wagers and 1% of NAGGR, with a thin 4.1% effective rake. The structural lesson for policy-makers and competitors elsewhere in Canada is clear: when consumers are offered a regulated, competitive casino vertical, it will dominate headline handle but yield a smaller share of taxable revenue than sports." }, "player_engagement": { "thesis": "Market has shifted from player acquisition to yield-optimisation.", "bullets": [ "**Accounts 277K \u2192 1,265K** (4.6\u00d7 since launch)", "**ARPPA $158 \u2192 $321** at **19.4% CAGR**", "Account growth dominated through **FY24** \u2014 operators acquiring", "**FY25 onward**: flat ARPPA on marginal accounts \u2014 yield phase, not acquisition", "**Winter > summer** account counts \u2014 mirrors North American sports calendars" ], "closing": null, "prose": "Active player accounts have climbed from 277K in April 2022 to 1,265K in April 2026, an order-of-magnitude expansion as more provincial residents migrated from grey-market sites to AGCO-licensed operators. ARPPA \u2014 a useful proxy for player value \u2014 has grown from $158 at launch to $321 in April 2026, with a CAGR of 19.4%. The shape of the curve matters: account growth was the dominant lever through FY24 as operators acquired new customers; from FY25 onward the marginal new account has produced relatively flat ARPPA growth, suggesting the market is now in a yield-optimisation phase rather than an acquisition phase. Seasonality is now legible in the data \u2014 winter months consistently print higher account counts than summer ones, mirroring North American sports calendars." }, "outlook_next_quarter": { "thesis": "Three forecast methods broadly agree; summer prints structurally below trend.", "bullets": [ "**Wagers next 3 months**: $9.94B \u2192 $9.86B \u2192 $10.00B", "**NAGGR next 3 months**: $416M \u2192 $417M \u2192 $424M", "Wider low/high band in **May\u2013July** = seasonal-naive pulling down, not new instability", "Watch: does **casino wagers-share hold above 85%** as betting pushes for re-engagement?", "Watch: does **ARPPA keep climbing** against a still-expanding account base?", "Watch: any **operator entry/exit** that changes competitive structure" ], "closing": null, "prose": "The three-method ensemble forecast (linear trend on the last 12 months, Holt-style exponential smoothing, and seasonal-naive with trailing-12-month growth adjustment) points to cash wagers of $9.94B, $9.86B, and $10.00B over the next three months. The corresponding NAGGR ensemble lands at $416M, $417M, and $424M. The methods diverge most where seasonality dominates (summer print is structurally below the trailing average), so a widening of the low/high band in May\u2013July is consistent with the historical pattern rather than a signal of new instability. Watch-items for the next quarter: (i) whether casino market share holds above 85% as betting operators push for re-engagement, (ii) whether ARPPA continues its slow climb against a still-expanding base of active accounts, and (iii) any operator entry/exit that materially changes the competitive structure of the market." } }, "hold_rates": { "market": { "latest_pct": 0.0435, "ttm_avg_pct": 0.0415, "ttm_yoy_pp": 0.26, "series": [ { "year_month": "2022-04", "hold_pct": 0.0407 }, { "year_month": "2022-05", "hold_pct": 0.0391 }, { "year_month": "2022-06", "hold_pct": 0.0399 }, { "year_month": "2022-07", "hold_pct": 0.0401 }, { "year_month": "2022-08", "hold_pct": 0.0444 }, { "year_month": "2022-09", "hold_pct": 0.0448 }, { "year_month": "2022-10", "hold_pct": 0.041 }, { "year_month": "2022-11", "hold_pct": 0.0433 }, { "year_month": "2022-12", "hold_pct": 0.0367 }, { "year_month": "2023-01", "hold_pct": 0.039 }, { "year_month": "2023-02", "hold_pct": 0.0352 }, { "year_month": "2023-03", "hold_pct": 0.0391 }, { "year_month": "2023-04", "hold_pct": 0.0391 }, { "year_month": "2023-05", "hold_pct": 0.0417 }, { "year_month": "2023-06", "hold_pct": 0.0361 }, { "year_month": "2023-07", "hold_pct": 0.0375 }, { "year_month": "2023-08", "hold_pct": 0.0373 }, { "year_month": "2023-09", "hold_pct": 0.039 }, { "year_month": "2023-10", "hold_pct": 0.0397 }, { "year_month": "2023-11", "hold_pct": 0.0378 }, { "year_month": "2023-12", "hold_pct": 0.0373 }, { "year_month": "2024-01", "hold_pct": 0.0403 }, { "year_month": "2024-02", "hold_pct": 0.0377 }, { "year_month": "2024-03", "hold_pct": 0.0386 }, { "year_month": "2024-04", "hold_pct": 0.0406 }, { "year_month": "2024-05", "hold_pct": 0.0384 }, { "year_month": "2024-06", "hold_pct": 0.0401 }, { "year_month": "2024-07", "hold_pct": 0.0398 }, { "year_month": "2024-08", "hold_pct": 0.0394 }, { "year_month": "2024-09", "hold_pct": 0.042 }, { "year_month": "2024-10", "hold_pct": 0.0357 }, { "year_month": "2024-11", "hold_pct": 0.0391 }, { "year_month": "2024-12", "hold_pct": 0.0345 }, { "year_month": "2025-01", "hold_pct": 0.0419 }, { "year_month": "2025-02", "hold_pct": 0.0393 }, { "year_month": "2025-03", "hold_pct": 0.0372 }, { "year_month": "2025-04", "hold_pct": 0.0402 }, { "year_month": "2025-05", "hold_pct": 0.0419 }, { "year_month": "2025-06", "hold_pct": 0.0423 }, { "year_month": "2025-07", "hold_pct": 0.0411 }, { "year_month": "2025-08", "hold_pct": 0.0411 }, { "year_month": "2025-09", "hold_pct": 0.0386 }, { "year_month": "2025-10", "hold_pct": 0.0398 }, { "year_month": "2025-11", "hold_pct": 0.0435 }, { "year_month": "2025-12", "hold_pct": 0.0448 }, { "year_month": "2026-01", "hold_pct": 0.0422 }, { "year_month": "2026-02", "hold_pct": 0.0392 }, { "year_month": "2026-03", "hold_pct": 0.0403 }, { "year_month": "2026-04", "hold_pct": 0.0435 } ] }, "by_product": { "casino": { "latest_pct": 0.0386, "ttm_avg_pct": 0.0378, "ttm_yoy_pp": 0.28 }, "betting": { "latest_pct": 0.0823, "ttm_avg_pct": 0.0706, "ttm_yoy_pp": 0.6 }, "poker": { "latest_pct": 0.0414, "ttm_avg_pct": 0.0415, "ttm_yoy_pp": 0.16 } }, "by_product_series": { "casino": [ { "year_month": "2022-04", "hold_pct": 0.031 }, { "year_month": "2022-05", "hold_pct": 0.0348 }, { "year_month": "2022-06", "hold_pct": 0.0335 }, { "year_month": "2022-07", "hold_pct": 0.0364 }, { "year_month": "2022-08", "hold_pct": 0.0374 }, { "year_month": "2022-09", "hold_pct": 0.0368 }, { "year_month": "2022-10", "hold_pct": 0.0342 }, { "year_month": "2022-11", "hold_pct": 0.0349 }, { "year_month": "2022-12", "hold_pct": 0.0336 }, { "year_month": "2023-01", "hold_pct": 0.0334 }, { "year_month": "2023-02", "hold_pct": 0.033 }, { "year_month": "2023-03", "hold_pct": 0.0326 }, { "year_month": "2023-04", "hold_pct": 0.0339 }, { "year_month": "2023-05", "hold_pct": 0.0336 }, { "year_month": "2023-06", "hold_pct": 0.034 }, { "year_month": "2023-07", "hold_pct": 0.0338 }, { "year_month": "2023-08", "hold_pct": 0.0339 }, { "year_month": "2023-09", "hold_pct": 0.0346 }, { "year_month": "2023-10", "hold_pct": 0.0351 }, { "year_month": "2023-11", "hold_pct": 0.0337 }, { "year_month": "2023-12", "hold_pct": 0.034 }, { "year_month": "2024-01", "hold_pct": 0.0342 }, { "year_month": "2024-02", "hold_pct": 0.0352 }, { "year_month": "2024-03", "hold_pct": 0.0355 }, { "year_month": "2024-04", "hold_pct": 0.0352 }, { "year_month": "2024-05", "hold_pct": 0.0336 }, { "year_month": "2024-06", "hold_pct": 0.0338 }, { "year_month": "2024-07", "hold_pct": 0.0347 }, { "year_month": "2024-08", "hold_pct": 0.0354 }, { "year_month": "2024-09", "hold_pct": 0.0357 }, { "year_month": "2024-10", "hold_pct": 0.034 }, { "year_month": "2024-11", "hold_pct": 0.0338 }, { "year_month": "2024-12", "hold_pct": 0.0343 }, { "year_month": "2025-01", "hold_pct": 0.0354 }, { "year_month": "2025-02", "hold_pct": 0.0353 }, { "year_month": "2025-03", "hold_pct": 0.0365 }, { "year_month": "2025-04", "hold_pct": 0.0369 }, { "year_month": "2025-05", "hold_pct": 0.0374 }, { "year_month": "2025-06", "hold_pct": 0.0382 }, { "year_month": "2025-07", "hold_pct": 0.0375 }, { "year_month": "2025-08", "hold_pct": 0.0371 }, { "year_month": "2025-09", "hold_pct": 0.0378 }, { "year_month": "2025-10", "hold_pct": 0.0386 }, { "year_month": "2025-11", "hold_pct": 0.0375 }, { "year_month": "2025-12", "hold_pct": 0.0388 }, { "year_month": "2026-01", "hold_pct": 0.0378 }, { "year_month": "2026-02", "hold_pct": 0.036 }, { "year_month": "2026-03", "hold_pct": 0.0382 }, { "year_month": "2026-04", "hold_pct": 0.0386 } ], "betting": [ { "year_month": "2022-04", "hold_pct": 0.0595 }, { "year_month": "2022-05", "hold_pct": 0.0488 }, { "year_month": "2022-06", "hold_pct": 0.0606 }, { "year_month": "2022-07", "hold_pct": 0.0565 }, { "year_month": "2022-08", "hold_pct": 0.0759 }, { "year_month": "2022-09", "hold_pct": 0.0773 }, { "year_month": "2022-10", "hold_pct": 0.0643 }, { "year_month": "2022-11", "hold_pct": 0.0761 }, { "year_month": "2022-12", "hold_pct": 0.0486 }, { "year_month": "2023-01", "hold_pct": 0.063 }, { "year_month": "2023-02", "hold_pct": 0.0448 }, { "year_month": "2023-03", "hold_pct": 0.0696 }, { "year_month": "2023-04", "hold_pct": 0.0646 }, { "year_month": "2023-05", "hold_pct": 0.0885 }, { "year_month": "2023-06", "hold_pct": 0.0496 }, { "year_month": "2023-07", "hold_pct": 0.0641 }, { "year_month": "2023-08", "hold_pct": 0.0595 }, { "year_month": "2023-09", "hold_pct": 0.0612 }, { "year_month": "2023-10", "hold_pct": 0.0612 }, { "year_month": "2023-11", "hold_pct": 0.055 }, { "year_month": "2023-12", "hold_pct": 0.0522 }, { "year_month": "2024-01", "hold_pct": 0.071 }, { "year_month": "2024-02", "hold_pct": 0.0512 }, { "year_month": "2024-03", "hold_pct": 0.0544 }, { "year_month": "2024-04", "hold_pct": 0.0696 }, { "year_month": "2024-05", "hold_pct": 0.0691 }, { "year_month": "2024-06", "hold_pct": 0.0826 }, { "year_month": "2024-07", "hold_pct": 0.0796 }, { "year_month": "2024-08", "hold_pct": 0.0706 }, { "year_month": "2024-09", "hold_pct": 0.0816 }, { "year_month": "2024-10", "hold_pct": 0.0458 }, { "year_month": "2024-11", "hold_pct": 0.0665 }, { "year_month": "2024-12", "hold_pct": 0.0349 }, { "year_month": "2025-01", "hold_pct": 0.0778 }, { "year_month": "2025-02", "hold_pct": 0.0662 }, { "year_month": "2025-03", "hold_pct": 0.0402 }, { "year_month": "2025-04", "hold_pct": 0.0605 }, { "year_month": "2025-05", "hold_pct": 0.074 }, { "year_month": "2025-06", "hold_pct": 0.0762 }, { "year_month": "2025-07", "hold_pct": 0.0766 }, { "year_month": "2025-08", "hold_pct": 0.0787 }, { "year_month": "2025-09", "hold_pct": 0.0442 }, { "year_month": "2025-10", "hold_pct": 0.0473 }, { "year_month": "2025-11", "hold_pct": 0.0814 }, { "year_month": "2025-12", "hold_pct": 0.091 }, { "year_month": "2026-01", "hold_pct": 0.0735 }, { "year_month": "2026-02", "hold_pct": 0.0648 }, { "year_month": "2026-03", "hold_pct": 0.057 }, { "year_month": "2026-04", "hold_pct": 0.0823 } ], "poker": [ { "year_month": "2022-04", "hold_pct": 0.0588 }, { "year_month": "2022-05", "hold_pct": 0.052 }, { "year_month": "2022-06", "hold_pct": 0.048 }, { "year_month": "2022-07", "hold_pct": 0.0333 }, { "year_month": "2022-08", "hold_pct": 0.0324 }, { "year_month": "2022-09", "hold_pct": 0.0324 }, { "year_month": "2022-10", "hold_pct": 0.0402 }, { "year_month": "2022-11", "hold_pct": 0.0447 }, { "year_month": "2022-12", "hold_pct": 0.0427 }, { "year_month": "2023-01", "hold_pct": 0.0389 }, { "year_month": "2023-02", "hold_pct": 0.0407 }, { "year_month": "2023-03", "hold_pct": 0.0434 }, { "year_month": "2023-04", "hold_pct": 0.0441 }, { "year_month": "2023-05", "hold_pct": 0.0407 }, { "year_month": "2023-06", "hold_pct": 0.0412 }, { "year_month": "2023-07", "hold_pct": 0.0414 }, { "year_month": "2023-08", "hold_pct": 0.0386 }, { "year_month": "2023-09", "hold_pct": 0.0417 }, { "year_month": "2023-10", "hold_pct": 0.038 }, { "year_month": "2023-11", "hold_pct": 0.0387 }, { "year_month": "2023-12", "hold_pct": 0.0392 }, { "year_month": "2024-01", "hold_pct": 0.039 }, { "year_month": "2024-02", "hold_pct": 0.0381 }, { "year_month": "2024-03", "hold_pct": 0.048 }, { "year_month": "2024-04", "hold_pct": 0.0401 }, { "year_month": "2024-05", "hold_pct": 0.0411 }, { "year_month": "2024-06", "hold_pct": 0.0366 }, { "year_month": "2024-07", "hold_pct": 0.0407 }, { "year_month": "2024-08", "hold_pct": 0.0431 }, { "year_month": "2024-09", "hold_pct": 0.0407 }, { "year_month": "2024-10", "hold_pct": 0.0373 }, { "year_month": "2024-11", "hold_pct": 0.0378 }, { "year_month": "2024-12", "hold_pct": 0.0397 }, { "year_month": "2025-01", "hold_pct": 0.0384 }, { "year_month": "2025-02", "hold_pct": 0.0369 }, { "year_month": "2025-03", "hold_pct": 0.0453 }, { "year_month": "2025-04", "hold_pct": 0.041 }, { "year_month": "2025-05", "hold_pct": 0.0437 }, { "year_month": "2025-06", "hold_pct": 0.0412 }, { "year_month": "2025-07", "hold_pct": 0.0424 }, { "year_month": "2025-08", "hold_pct": 0.045 }, { "year_month": "2025-09", "hold_pct": 0.0354 }, { "year_month": "2025-10", "hold_pct": 0.0427 }, { "year_month": "2025-11", "hold_pct": 0.0488 }, { "year_month": "2025-12", "hold_pct": 0.0411 }, { "year_month": "2026-01", "hold_pct": 0.0378 }, { "year_month": "2026-02", "hold_pct": 0.04 }, { "year_month": "2026-03", "hold_pct": 0.0377 }, { "year_month": "2026-04", "hold_pct": 0.0414 } ] }, "method_note": "Hold rate = NAGGR \u00f7 cash wagers, computed monthly. Trailing-12mo (TTM) average smooths month-end timing noise. YoY change reported in percentage points (pp), not relative %." }, "ttm": { "available": true, "window_months": 12, "start_month": "2025-05", "end_month": "2026-04", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 104846.0, "naggr_sum_m": 4357.8, "active_players_avg_k": 1185.2, "arppa_avg": 307.2, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0416, "annualised_wagers_b": 104.85, "annualised_naggr_b": 4.36, "yoy": { "wagers_yoy_pct": 0.2427, "naggr_yoy_pct": 0.3282 } }, "fiscal_year": { "rollups": [ { "fy": "FY23", "n_months": 12, "complete": true, "first_month": "2022-04", "last_month": "2023-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 35544.0, "naggr_sum_m": 1413.2, "active_players_peak_k": 677.0, "active_players_avg_k": 474.0, "arppa_avg": 240.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0398, "yoy_wagers_pct": null, "yoy_naggr_pct": null, "yoy_players_peak_pct": null, "yoy_comparison_note": null }, { "fy": "FY24", "n_months": 12, "complete": true, "first_month": "2023-04", "last_month": "2024-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 63275.0, "naggr_sum_m": 2438.3, "active_players_peak_k": 912.0, "active_players_avg_k": 723.0, "arppa_avg": 284.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0385, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.7802, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.7254, "yoy_players_peak_pct": 0.3471, "yoy_comparison_note": "full year vs FY23" }, { "fy": "FY25", "n_months": 12, "complete": true, "first_month": "2024-04", "last_month": "2025-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 82742.0, "naggr_sum_m": 3217.8, "active_players_peak_k": 1129.0, "active_players_avg_k": 937.0, "arppa_avg": 288.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0389, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.3077, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.3197, "yoy_players_peak_pct": 0.2379, "yoy_comparison_note": "full year vs FY24" }, { "fy": "FY26", "n_months": 12, "complete": true, "first_month": "2025-04", "last_month": "2026-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 103327.0, "naggr_sum_m": 4265.7, "active_players_peak_k": 1327.0, "active_players_avg_k": 1171.0, "arppa_avg": 304.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0413, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.2488, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.3257, "yoy_players_peak_pct": 0.1754, "yoy_comparison_note": "full year vs FY25" }, { "fy": "FY27", "n_months": 1, "complete": false, "first_month": "2026-04", "last_month": "2026-04", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 9315.0, "naggr_sum_m": 405.4, "active_players_peak_k": 1265.0, "active_players_avg_k": 1265.0, "arppa_avg": 321.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0435, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.1948, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.294, "yoy_players_peak_pct": 0.1595, "yoy_comparison_note": "like-for-like vs first 1 month of FY26" } ] }, "quarterly": { "rollups": [ { "fyq": "FY23Q1", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2022-04", "last_month": "2022-06", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 4075.0, "naggr_sum_m": 162.3, "active_players_avg_k": 295.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0398, "qoq_wagers_pct": null, "yoy_wagers_pct": null, "yoy_naggr_pct": null }, { "fyq": "FY23Q2", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2022-07", "last_month": "2022-09", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 6082.0, "naggr_sum_m": 263.8, "active_players_avg_k": 360.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0434, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.4925, "yoy_wagers_pct": null, "yoy_naggr_pct": null }, { "fyq": "FY23Q3", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2022-10", "last_month": "2022-12", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 11535.0, "naggr_sum_m": 462.8, "active_players_avg_k": 581.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0401, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.8966, "yoy_wagers_pct": null, "yoy_naggr_pct": null }, { "fyq": "FY23Q4", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2023-01", "last_month": "2023-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 13852.0, "naggr_sum_m": 524.3, "active_players_avg_k": 660.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0379, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.2009, "yoy_wagers_pct": null, "yoy_naggr_pct": null }, { "fyq": "FY24Q1", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2023-04", "last_month": "2023-06", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 13981.0, "naggr_sum_m": 545.8, "active_players_avg_k": 621.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.039, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.0093, "yoy_wagers_pct": 2.4309, "yoy_naggr_pct": 2.3629 }, { "fyq": "FY24Q2", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2023-07", "last_month": "2023-09", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 14240.0, "naggr_sum_m": 540.7, "active_players_avg_k": 600.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.038, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.0185, "yoy_wagers_pct": 1.3413, "yoy_naggr_pct": 1.0497 }, { "fyq": "FY24Q3", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2023-10", "last_month": "2023-12", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 17223.0, "naggr_sum_m": 658.3, "active_players_avg_k": 789.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0382, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.2095, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.4931, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.4224 }, { "fyq": "FY24Q4", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2024-01", "last_month": "2024-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 17831.0, "naggr_sum_m": 693.5, "active_players_avg_k": 882.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0389, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.0353, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.2873, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.3227 }, { "fyq": "FY25Q1", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2024-04", "last_month": "2024-06", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 18402.0, "naggr_sum_m": 730.3, "active_players_avg_k": 855.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0397, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.032, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.3162, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.338 }, { "fyq": "FY25Q2", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2024-07", "last_month": "2024-09", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 18678.0, "naggr_sum_m": 755.1, "active_players_avg_k": 800.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0404, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.015, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.3117, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.3965 }, { "fyq": "FY25Q3", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2024-10", "last_month": "2024-12", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 22734.0, "naggr_sum_m": 827.4, "active_players_avg_k": 994.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0364, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.2172, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.32, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.2569 }, { "fyq": "FY25Q4", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2025-01", "last_month": "2025-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 22928.0, "naggr_sum_m": 905.0, "active_players_avg_k": 1098.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0395, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.0085, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.2859, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.305 }, { "fyq": "FY26Q1", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2025-04", "last_month": "2025-06", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 23121.0, "naggr_sum_m": 958.1, "active_players_avg_k": 1057.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0414, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.0084, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.2564, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.3119 }, { "fyq": "FY26Q2", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2025-07", "last_month": "2025-09", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 24251.0, "naggr_sum_m": 975.7, "active_players_avg_k": 1047.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0402, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.0489, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.2984, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.2921 }, { "fyq": "FY26Q3", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2025-10", "last_month": "2025-12", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 28082.0, "naggr_sum_m": 1200.0, "active_players_avg_k": 1288.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0427, "qoq_wagers_pct": 0.158, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.2352, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.4503 }, { "fyq": "FY26Q4", "n_months": 3, "complete": true, "first_month": "2026-01", "last_month": "2026-03", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 27873.0, "naggr_sum_m": 1131.9, "active_players_avg_k": 1291.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0406, "qoq_wagers_pct": -0.0074, "yoy_wagers_pct": 0.2157, "yoy_naggr_pct": 0.2507 }, { "fyq": "FY27Q1", "n_months": 1, "complete": false, "first_month": "2026-04", "last_month": "2026-04", "cash_wagers_sum_m": 9315.0, "naggr_sum_m": 405.4, "active_players_avg_k": 1265.0, "implied_hold_pct": 0.0435, "qoq_wagers_pct": -0.6658, "yoy_wagers_pct": -0.5971, "yoy_naggr_pct": -0.5769 } ] }, "penetration": { "denominator": { "value": 12830000, "as_of": "2024-07-01", "source": "Statistics Canada Table 17-10-0005-01 (Ontario, age 15+, Q3 2024)", "source_url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000501", "caveat": "Active player ACCOUNTS, not unique persons \u2014 one player may hold accounts with multiple operators. AGCO/iGO does not publish unique-individuals data, so this penetration figure is an upper bound." }, "latest_active_pct": 0.0986, "earliest_active_pct": 0.0216, "growth_pp_since_launch": 7.7, "history_series": [ { "year_month": "2022-04", "pct": 0.0216 }, { "year_month": "2022-05", "pct": 0.0242 }, { "year_month": "2022-06", "pct": 0.0233 }, { "year_month": "2022-07", "pct": 0.0214 }, { "year_month": "2022-08", "pct": 0.0258 }, { "year_month": "2022-09", "pct": 0.037 }, { "year_month": "2022-10", "pct": 0.0409 }, { "year_month": "2022-11", "pct": 0.0463 }, { "year_month": "2022-12", "pct": 0.0486 }, { "year_month": "2023-01", "pct": 0.0511 }, { "year_month": "2023-02", "pct": 0.0528 }, { "year_month": "2023-03", "pct": 0.0504 }, { "year_month": "2023-04", "pct": 0.0528 }, { "year_month": "2023-05", "pct": 0.0489 }, { "year_month": "2023-06", "pct": 0.0434 }, { "year_month": "2023-07", "pct": 0.0415 }, { "year_month": "2023-08", "pct": 0.0443 }, { "year_month": "2023-09", "pct": 0.0546 }, { "year_month": "2023-10", "pct": 0.0606 }, { "year_month": "2023-11", "pct": 0.0607 }, { "year_month": "2023-12", "pct": 0.0631 }, { "year_month": "2024-01", "pct": 0.0684 }, { "year_month": "2024-02", "pct": 0.0711 }, { "year_month": "2024-03", "pct": 0.0668 }, { "year_month": "2024-04", "pct": 0.0709 }, { "year_month": "2024-05", "pct": 0.0636 }, { "year_month": "2024-06", "pct": 0.0653 }, { "year_month": "2024-07", "pct": 0.0641 }, { "year_month": "2024-08", "pct": 0.056 }, { "year_month": "2024-09", "pct": 0.067 }, { "year_month": "2024-10", "pct": 0.0737 }, { "year_month": "2024-11", "pct": 0.0788 }, { "year_month": "2024-12", "pct": 0.0799 }, { "year_month": "2025-01", "pct": 0.0862 }, { "year_month": "2025-02", "pct": 0.088 }, { "year_month": "2025-03", "pct": 0.0826 }, { "year_month": "2025-04", "pct": 0.085 }, { "year_month": "2025-05", "pct": 0.0832 }, { "year_month": "2025-06", "pct": 0.079 }, { "year_month": "2025-07", "pct": 0.0739 }, { "year_month": "2025-08", "pct": 0.0792 }, { "year_month": "2025-09", "pct": 0.0917 }, { "year_month": "2025-10", "pct": 0.1003 }, { "year_month": "2025-11", "pct": 0.1012 }, { "year_month": "2025-12", "pct": 0.0995 }, { "year_month": "2026-01", "pct": 0.1034 }, { "year_month": "2026-02", "pct": 0.1017 }, { "year_month": "2026-03", "pct": 0.0966 }, { "year_month": "2026-04", "pct": 0.0986 } ] }, "seasonality": { "has_full_year_history": true, "indices": { "cash_wagers": { "January": 1.1654, "February": 1.0748, "March": 1.1942, "April": 0.9725, "May": 0.8523, "June": 0.8006, "July": 0.8281, "August": 0.8661, "September": 0.9395, "October": 1.0569, "November": 1.0972, "December": 1.1592 }, "naggr": { "January": 1.2023, "February": 1.0296, "March": 1.164, "April": 1.0034, "May": 0.8672, "June": 0.8021, "July": 0.8256, "August": 0.87, "September": 0.9497, "October": 1.0254, "November": 1.1276, "December": 1.1322 }, "active_players": { "January": 1.1871, "February": 1.2045, "March": 1.1389, "April": 1.0108, "May": 0.8449, "June": 0.8105, "July": 0.7716, "August": 0.7883, "September": 0.9614, "October": 1.0584, "November": 1.1027, "December": 1.1183 }, "arppa": { "January": 1.026, "February": 0.8635, "March": 1.0439, "April": 0.9437, "May": 0.9885, "June": 0.9653, "July": 1.0618, "August": 1.1002, "September": 0.9912, "October": 0.9769, "November": 1.0368, "December": 1.0162 } }, "peak_month": { "cash_wagers": { "month_name": "March", "index": 1.1942 }, "naggr": { "month_name": "January", "index": 1.2023 }, "active_players": { "month_name": "February", "index": 1.2045 }, "arppa": { "month_name": "August", "index": 1.1002 } }, "trough_month": { "cash_wagers": { "month_name": "June", "index": 0.8006 }, "naggr": { "month_name": "June", "index": 0.8021 }, "active_players": { "month_name": "July", "index": 0.7716 }, "arppa": { "month_name": "February", "index": 0.8635 } } }, "records": { "cash_wagers": { "value": 9591.0, "month": "2026-03", "months_since": 1, "is_current_record": false }, "naggr": { "value": 425.6, "month": "2025-12", "months_since": 4, "is_current_record": false }, "active_players": { "value": 1327.0, "month": "2026-01", "months_since": 3, "is_current_record": false }, "arppa": { "value": 333.0, "month": "2025-12", "months_since": 4, "is_current_record": false } }, "streaks": { "cash_wagers": { "direction": "down", "months": 1, "latest_mom_pct": -0.03 }, "naggr": { "direction": "up", "months": 2, "latest_mom_pct": 0.05 }, "active_players": { "direction": "up", "months": 1, "latest_mom_pct": 0.02 }, "arppa": { "direction": "up", "months": 2, "latest_mom_pct": 0.03 } }, "drawdowns": { "market": { "cash_wagers": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.1, "peak_month": "2025-05", "peak_value": 8066.0, "trough_month": "2025-06", "trough_value": 7259.0, "recovered": true, "recovery_months": 2 }, "naggr": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.1955, "peak_month": "2025-12", "peak_value": 425.6, "trough_month": "2026-02", "trough_value": 342.4, "recovered": false, "recovery_months": null }, "active_players": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.2142, "peak_month": "2023-02", "peak_value": 677.0, "trough_month": "2023-07", "trough_value": 532.0, "recovered": true, "recovery_months": 2 }, "arppa": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.275, "peak_month": "2023-07", "peak_value": 320.0, "trough_month": "2024-02", "trough_value": 232.0, "recovered": true, "recovery_months": 6 } }, "by_product": { "casino": { "wagers": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.0849, "peak_month": "2025-05", "peak_value": 6950.0, "trough_month": "2025-06", "trough_value": 6360.0, "recovered": true, "recovery_months": 2 }, "naggr": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.1403, "peak_month": "2025-12", "peak_value": 320.7, "trough_month": "2026-02", "trough_value": 275.7, "recovered": false, "recovery_months": null } }, "betting": { "wagers": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.4204, "peak_month": "2024-11", "peak_value": 1187.0, "trough_month": "2025-07", "trough_value": 688.0, "recovered": true, "recovery_months": 3 }, "naggr": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.5474, "peak_month": "2023-05", "peak_value": 60.1, "trough_month": "2023-06", "trough_value": 27.2, "recovered": true, "recovery_months": 7 } }, "poker": { "wagers": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.3005, "peak_month": "2026-03", "peak_value": 183.0, "trough_month": "2026-04", "trough_value": 128.0, "recovered": false, "recovery_months": null }, "naggr": { "available": true, "max_drawdown_pct": -0.3239, "peak_month": "2024-03", "peak_value": 7.1, "trough_month": "2024-06", "trough_value": 4.8, "recovered": false, "recovery_months": null } } } }, "volatility": { "window_months": 12, "available": true, "cv": { "cash_wagers": { "recent_12m": 0.0934, "prior_12m": 0.1126, "change_pp": -1.92, "direction": "stabilising" }, "naggr": { "recent_12m": 0.1131, "prior_12m": 0.1103, "change_pp": 0.27, "direction": "unchanged" }, "active_players": { "recent_12m": 0.1149, "prior_12m": 0.1439, "change_pp": -2.91, "direction": "stabilising" }, "arppa": { "recent_12m": 0.0708, "prior_12m": 0.0771, "change_pp": -0.63, "direction": "stabilising" } }, "method_note": "Coefficient of variation = standard deviation \u00f7 mean of the level series across the window. Lower = more stable." }, "forecast_backtest": { "available": false, "note": "First run \u2014 no prior forecasts on record to backtest. From the next monthly ingest onward, this section will score the current forecast against last month's prediction." }, "downloads": { "market_csv": "/wp-content/themes/igaming-compliance/assets/data/igo-monthly-market.csv", "product_csv": "/wp-content/themes/igaming-compliance/assets/data/igo-monthly-by-product.csv", "raw_json": "/wp-content/themes/igaming-compliance/assets/data/igo-monthly.json", "analysis_json": "/wp-content/themes/igaming-compliance/assets/data/igo-monthly-analysis.json" } }